Spec Trade Kansas VS Minni Wheat
Friday, July 29, 2022 at 2:30:42 p.m. UTC
Featured Commodity: Wheat Spread between Kansas and Minni
Reasons: I think that the spring wheat crop will be average to slightly better. I think that the winter wheat crop is below average. All the crop reports and other research seems to indicate this. I think that market won’t wake up to this until October.
Technical aspects: In the fall we should see the spread between the two narrow in and possibly turn positive as in Kansas is worth more than mini.
Is there Trade?:
o Enter into Spreadsheet: Yes
Overall Riskiness: Not too bad. Current spread is around 50 cents
Risk: risk 50 cents on the spread.
Reward: could be a dollar. Kansas could move 50 cents under to 50 cents over.
Duration: This trade will need at least until Dec. By then all the numbers should be in.
o Entry: July 27-22 Close: Buy March 23 Kansas @ 8.72 and Sell March 23 Minneapolis @ 9.31 spread of - 0.59 (8.72-9.31)
o Exit profit: Kansas goes 50 cents over, for a dollar profit
o Exit Loss: Kansas goes 50 cents lower, for a loss of 50 cents.
Links to Tracking spread sheet: https://insightag.shortcm.li/Futuresfriday